Control of Congress – and Biden’s power

Joseph Ax

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – Americans cast their final votes in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections. These will determine if Democrats lose control over Congress and, thereby, whether they can push ahead with President Joe Biden’s agenda in the next 2 years.

Midterm elections are a time when the White House party controls loses seats. Nonpartisan forecasts show Tuesday’s results will not be an exception. Inflation and crime concerns outweigh national abortion rights ending and violence at the Capitol from Jan. 6, 2021 in the minds of voters.

All 435 House of Representatives seat and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. The House is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. This could lead to the Senate being splintered to four toss-up races, with the Democrats currently holding the tie-breaking vote.

The 2024 presidential election was already in motion even before the midterm elections had been completed. Trump, the former president, gave his strongest hint yet Monday night that he would soon launch his third consecutive White House campaign. He told Ohio supporters that he would make a “big announcement” Nov. 15. Although he did not give any details, he had been telegraphing his plans to run again since shortly before he lost his 2020 bid to Biden.

There are hundreds of Trump supporters who claim that Trump’s loss was due to widespread fraud. They are all on the ballot, including many who seek positions that would allow them to directly oversee the 2024 presidential election in competitive states.

Data from the U.S. Election Project shows that more than 42,000,000 Americans voted in advance of Election Day. They did so either by mail or in person. Officials from the state election commission warn that results in close races may not be available for several days. The Senate control will not be known until the potential Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia.

A Republican-controlled House would be able to block bills addressing Democratic priorities such as abortion rights and climate change. Republicans could also start a battle over the nation’s debt ceiling. This could shake financial markets and launch potentially damaging investigations into Biden’s family and administration.

Republicans would seek to leverage their power to make Trump’s 2017 individual and corporate tax cuts permanent. Democrats have failed to reverse them over the past two year.

In the meantime, a Republican Senate would have control over Biden’s judicial nominees, including any Supreme Court vacant seats. Mitch McConnell (top Senate Republican) has suggested that he might not fill an open seat at the top court until after the 2024 presidential elections, if he is elected again to the position of majority leader.

A divided government would increase the attention on the court’s increasingly conservative views, which has issued several landmark decisions, including those that revoke the right to abortion nationwide and greatly expand gun rights.

There are 36 governorships, scores of other state-level races, and hotly contested gubernatorial elections in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

(Graphics: 2022 U.S. elections poll closing times: https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/POLL-CLOSE/gkvlgrknzpb/chart.png)

FINAL PUMP

Biden and Obama, the former president of the party, have been traveling the country for the past week to urge supporters to vote. Trump is doing the same, as he prepares for another run for the presidency.

As Biden’s popularity waned, there have been some tough-fought Democrats who deliberately distance themselves from the White House. Biden headed to Maryland, a Democratic-leaning state, on Monday, his final day of campaigning.

The Supreme Court’s June decision in Roe v. Wade to reverse it, the 1973 ruling which established a nationwide right for abortion, has galvanized Democratic voters across the country. It temporarily raised hopes that Democrats could challenge history.

However, the forecasters have become more optimistic that Republicans will win a majority of the House in the final weeks, potentially flipping at least 20 seats.

Despite having one of the most robust job markets ever, persistently rising prices have made voters unhappy, aided by constant attacks from Republicans on gas and food prices as well as criminality.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Monday revealed that more Americans think the country is in trouble. Only 39% of Americans praised the job done by Biden. Trump’s polling is also low with only 41% responding to a separate Reuters/Ipsos Poll saying they viewed Trump favorably.

Some Democrats are questioning the party’s campaign message that centered on American democracy and protecting abortion rights, given the increasingly dire outlook.

Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with the nonpartisan forecaster Inside Elections, stated that what we have seen in the past month was political gravity reaffirming itself. “Biden has not substantively increased his approval ratings since the beginning of this year. Voters care deeply about the economy and blame Biden for inflation.

ELECTION DENIERS

Biden and other Democrats raised alarm about a number of Republican candidates who either repeated or refused to believe Trump’s false claims of losing the 2020 election because of widespread fraud.

Biden declared Sunday that democracy is “literally on the ballot” at Yonkers, New York rally.

A large number of Republican candidates are election deniers, which has increased the attention paid to down-ballot races, such as those for secretary of state, which is the top elected official in most states.

The Republican nominees for the heads of the state’s election apparatus in swing states like Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan have adopted Trump’s lies, raising concerns among Democrats that they might interfere with the 2024 presidential race.

Trump’s influence on the Republican Party continues to be formidable. His endorsement was a powerful tool in party selection contests. His preferred candidates won in many crucial Senate primaries, despite fears from some Republican leaders about their far-right rhetoric being a liability in general election.

Blake Masters in Arizona, J.D. are two examples of first-time Senate candidate. Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz from Pennsylvania, and Blake Masters in Arizona are first-time senator candidates. This gives Democrats hope in difficult races for Biden.

In Georgia, Herschel Walker, a former sports star challenging incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock has been the subject of a number of scandals. These include claims he called lies from two women that he advised them to have abortions in past relationships, despite his uncompromising antiabortion stance while on the campaign trail.

Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist said that winning the Senate would have been easy if the Republican Party was more intelligent in choosing qualified candidates. “They were really handicapped.”